German gambling market could grow to €3.3bn by 2024

3 July 2020

German gambling revenue is set to reach €3.3bn by 2024, according to new market projections from consulting and research provider Goldmedia.

The report was published with the support of industry portal CasinoOnline.de and explores market developments in the areas of lottery, sports betting, casinos and gaming machines up to 2019. It also estimates the revenue hit the sector faces as a result of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

It predicts that gaming revenues in the German online casino market would grow from €2.2bn (£1.98bn/$2.47bn) in 2019 to €3.3bn by 2024.

Turnover across all products and verticals rose 5.5% - or €850m - to a total of €16.3bn (£14.7bn/$18.32bn). Gaming machines are the most profitable segment of the market and accounted for 42% of gaming revenue.

Growth rates for online casino and sports betting were the highest across the market, growing 10.6% and 18.6% respectively in 2019 compared to 2018.

The report predicts a decline in gaming revenue for 2020, however, with the Covid-19 pandemic expected to see the market down 12.9% year-on-year.

In addition to its market forecasts, the report included a survey of around 400 existing online gaming customers in Germany.

Despite the tougher restrictions expected to be placed upon operators under Germany’s upcoming licensing regime, 62% of respondents said that they would opt for a locally-licensed operator, given the choice.

Yet over a third (38%) claimed they would prefer to continue playing through unregulated operators licensed in other jurisdictions.

The survey found that currently, 12% of respondents play online slots daily, while around 32% play weekly. The most frequently used platform for playing online slots is the smartphone, accounting form some 65% of play.

Customer acquisition takes place mostly through online advertising (39%), while social media accounts for just 9%. Recommendations from friends rank much more highly, accounting for 28% of online casino customer acquisitions.

The majority of respondents (52%) spends under €50 per month on online gambling, the survey discovered.

When asked about customer protection measures such as deposit limits, as many as 81% of respondents were found to be in agreement with their use.

Legislation at the national level to introduce online gambling regulation was first approved by German heads of state in March this year. Under the planned schedule, the legalisation of online poker and casino is expected to come into force on 1 July 2021.

Expected restrictions for online casino under the regulatory regime include a maximum stake limit of €1 per spin on slots, a mandatory deposit limit of €1,000 across all operators, and no advertising for online gambling between 6am and 9pm.

The draft regulations were submitted to the European Commission in May.