Covid-19: H2 downgrades FY expectations by 19.4%

1 May 2020

H2 Gambling Capital has further downgraded its GGR forecast for the global gambling sector as the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak continues to negatively impact revenues and outlook.

iGB’s principal data partner is now projecting 2020 global gambling gross win of £381.6bn, 19.4% below the outlook it provided before the outbreak began to materially impact the sector in early February (see Charts 1 and 2 in dashboard below).

Europe is on track to miss its pre-outbreak target by the largest margin – 20.6% – ahead of the Asia/Oceania region where the outbreak first originated and movement restrictions look set to be loosened first (Charts 3 and 4).

H2 said that the marginal global downgrade was down to most amendments having been made to trim revenue expectations during the period from May to July, when sports events and major casinos are anticipated to gradually restart.

Sands China is among the operators which has announced plans to first reopen their Macau properties to VIPs ahead of the general public with social distancing measures in place.

Once open, H2 expects “significant pent up demand” from a section of the population who has been stuck indoors the best part of two months but this will “soon subside due to some of the population not wishing to go to a public location when not essential, the inconvenience/atmosphere of social distancing and the hit to discretionary spending.”