Covid-19: gambling market facing 18.6% revenue hit

23 April 2020

H2 Gambling Capital has further downgraded its revenue forecast for the global gambling market as the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic continues to disrupt the sector.

iGB’s principal data partner is now projecting 2020 global gambling gross win of £384.4bn, 18.8% below the forecast it provided before the outbreak began to materially impact the sector in early February, starting with the casino closures in Macau (see Charts 1 and 2 below).

Following today’s downgrade by a further two percentage points over the last seven days, global gambling revenue is now tracking below the total recorded for 2012 (see Chart 8).

H2 said the further $15bn reduction in its 2020 forecast was down to the addition of the IMF's downgrade of its expectations for global economic growth from +4.9% to +3.0% and other data points, including the cessation of Chinese lottery sales in February and Q1 company results. 

From a regional perspective, Europe saw the greatest downgrade in the last seven days, by more than six percentage points to -19.8% (Chart 4).

Asia/Oceania, where the pandemic emerged, is now forecast to finish -19.3% behind pre-pandemic estimates and North America by -16.5% (Charts 3 and 5).