Covid-19: annual revenue expected to miss 2013 total

9 April 2020

Global gambling revenue is now estimated by H2 Gambling Capital to finish the year below the total for 2013 as the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis continues to disrupt the sector

iGB’s principal data partner is projecting 2020 global gambling gross win for the sector of $399.6bn, 15.6% below the forecast it provided before the industry began to be impacted by the outbreak from early February (see Charts 1 and 2 below).

The annual downgrade of 15.6% projected by H2 in Week 10 of its tracking of the cumulative impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak on the global gambling industry compares to 13.6% a week ago.

From a regional standpoint, Europe saw the greatest downgrade in the last seven days, by more than three percentage points to 13.6%. Asia/Oceania, first impacted by the pandemic, is currently forecast to finish 18.7% below the pre-crisis estimate, and North America by 12.6% (Charts 3-5 below).

The growth of online vis a vis its land-based counterpart now appears to have plateaued, with digital’s projected share of 16.5% of total global gambling revenues for 2020 flat on the figure estimated a week earlier (see Chart 6).

H2 also warned of a further negative impact midway through the month of more US states reporting their March figures, after those states that reported early in April posted revenue numbers 60-65% below what H2 had expected pre-crisis.

This week will also see the IMF publish revised GDP forecasts including the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, which H2 said it expected to have a further material impact on its 2020 expectations for global industry gross win.